XRP Still Trails 2018 Peak as Supply Expands

XRP remains well below its January 2018 record even after a major U.S. legal overhang ended and spot exchange-traded funds created new regulated access to the asset. At roughly $1.34, XRP trades about 65% below its $3.84 all-time high, while its circulating supply is approximately 63% larger than it was near that previous peak.

The supply comparison changes how the historical gap should be interpreted. CoinMarketCap recorded approximately 38.74 billion XRP in circulation at the beginning of January 2018, compared with about 63.12 billion today. If the same peak valuation were distributed across today’s larger circulating supply, the implied XRP price would be roughly 39% lower than in 2018, even before accounting for changes in demand.

That does not mean XRP underwent conventional token inflation. The XRP Ledger began with a maximum supply of 100 billion XRP and does not mint new units through mining or staking. Ripple reported 62.33 billion XRP distributed as of June 30, with another 32.6 billion still held in on-ledger escrow. The increase reflects previously created XRP entering circulation rather than new XRP being created beyond the original supply.

Supply Explains Part, but Not All, of the Gap

Circulating supply makes unit-price comparisons across eight years imperfect, but XRP also remains below its former peak when measured by market capitalization. Its current market value is approximately $85 billion, compared with more than $120 billion in CoinMarketCap’s January 3, 2018 snapshot and an even higher implied valuation at the intraday price peak. Supply dilution narrows the historical performance gap when measured by market cap, but it does not eliminate it.

Regulatory uncertainty also shaped XRP’s market access for several years. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sued Ripple in December 2020, and litigation continued until 2025. According to the SEC’s official August 2025 litigation release, the parties ultimately dismissed their appeals, leaving intact the $125.035 million civil penalty and the district court’s final judgment. The case ended without overturning the court’s distinction between Ripple’s unlawful institutional XRP sales and other secondary-market transactions.

The resolution removed a major source of legal uncertainty, but it did not mechanically restore XRP to its former price. Regulatory clarity can improve market access without guaranteeing equivalent demand, particularly when the amount of circulating XRP has changed substantially since the previous cycle.

ETFs Expand Access Without Closing the Price Gap

U.S. spot XRP ETFs have nevertheless created a larger regulated investment channel than XRP had during previous cycles. The products recorded an 11-session inflow streak worth about $170 million in August and early September, while SEC filings show individual funds holding hundreds of millions of dollars of XRP during 2026. Bitwise reported approximately $299 million in net assets at June 30, while Canary reported about $241 million. ETF adoption is therefore measurable, even though it remains much smaller in absolute scale than the U.S. Bitcoin ETF market.

Recent flows also show why institutional demand should not be characterized as uniformly weakening. After earlier fluctuations, XRP products recorded roughly $11 million of net inflows during the week ending October 9. That follows periods of stronger demand documented through the earlier XRP ETF inflow streak. ETF flows are snapshots of demand through investment wrappers, not a direct measure of all institutional buying or a guarantee of higher XRP prices.

Ripple’s own financial infrastructure has expanded at the same time. RLUSD now has more than $2.4 billion in reported circulation, and the XRP Ledger has added institutional use cases including fund-record infrastructure involving CSD BR and BTG Pactual and programmable wallets for AI-driven XRP and RLUSD payments. Those developments expand Ripple and XRPL infrastructure, but adoption of those products does not translate automatically into demand for XRP itself.

The same caution applies to Ripple’s banking ambitions. The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency granted preliminary conditional approval for the proposed Ripple National Trust Bank in December 2025. Conditional charter approval is a regulatory milestone, not evidence that Ripple already operates a fully authorized national trust bank.

XRP’s failure to revisit $3.84 therefore cannot be reduced to a single explanation. A substantially larger circulating supply raises the market capitalization required to reproduce the old unit price, while the current valuation itself remains below its 2018 peak despite improved legal clarity and new institutional access. The relevant comparison is consequently not price alone, but the interaction between supply, market capitalization and sustained demand across successive market cycles.