Bloomberg Intelligence argued that Coinbase’s USDC-linked revenue could expand by twofold to sevenfold if on-chain payments adoption accelerates, potentially shifting the company’s earnings mix toward payments-driven interest income. The report anchored the thesis in Coinbase’s reported stablecoin revenue of $1.35 billion in 2025, up from $911 million in 2024, and framed USDC reserve interest as a high-margin engine.
The strategic implication is that Coinbase would look less like a cycle-dependent trading venue and more like a payments infrastructure business whose cash flows track dollar settlement volume on-chain. In Bloomberg Intelligence’s framing, the “payments rail” narrative matters because it can make stablecoin economics a steadier profit anchor than spot and derivatives fees.
Payments adoption is the unlock
Bloomberg Intelligence tied the upside case to scale already visible in stablecoin settlement data, noting an estimated $33 trillion in global on-chain dollar flows in 2025, with USDC accounting for about $18.3 trillion of that total. The underlying bet is that as USDC usage shifts from trading collateral toward everyday payment movement, Coinbase’s interest-income opportunity expands with transaction volume and balances.
The report highlighted enabling conditions that would turn this from a theoretical model into repeatable revenue: federal policy cover, mainstream distribution partners, and low-cost execution rails. It pointed to the GENIUS Act enacted in July 2025 as providing firmer footing for payment stablecoins, while citing reported integrations with Stripe and ongoing build-out on Coinbase’s Base layer-2 as practical steps to increase micropayments and settlement throughput. Taken together, those inputs are presented as the operating leverage that could push stablecoin revenue meaningfully higher without requiring a proportional increase in headcount or trading activity.
Policy design could reshape incentives
Bloomberg Intelligence also emphasized that the path is not purely operational; it is highly sensitive to U.S. rulemaking around stablecoin “rewards” and how value is shared between issuers, platforms, and end users. The report flagged draft legislation such as the CLARITY Act—then navigating the Senate with discussion of potential clearance in April 2026—as a key variable because a ban on yield payments to stablecoin holders would change user incentives and force adjustments to Coinbase’s revenue-sharing arrangements with Circle.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, as cited in the report, suggested a prohibition on rewards could actually improve profitability by allowing Coinbase to retain a larger portion of interest income rather than passing it through. That creates two very different commercial outcomes: one where consumer rewards help drive adoption, and another where intermediary capture strengthens margins even if incentives at the edge are reduced.
Even with a constructive stablecoin outlook, Bloomberg Intelligence noted that near-term valuation can still be dragged by broader crypto cycles, pointing to late-2025 Bitcoin sell-offs that weighed on Coinbase’s stock. The report nevertheless estimated stablecoin revenue at roughly 19% of Coinbase’s 2025 total and modeled a wide range of outcomes in which payments adoption elevates that base into a dominant profit center that makes Coinbase look more like payments infrastructure than a traditional exchange.
