Bitwise Asset Management argues that Bitcoin returns can stay strong yet become more predictable over the next decade, driven by institutional adoption and structural supply constraints. The forecast frames Bitcoin’s trajectory as a shift away from boom-and-bust cycles and toward steadier, institution-led appreciation supported by regulated market access.
Bitwise ties this outlook to continued institutional demand following the launch and early success of spot Bitcoin ETFs. The firm projects Bitcoin ETFs could manage more than $180 billion by 2026, and it also estimates that theoretical institutional deployment into Bitcoin could reach as much as $5 trillion. An ETF is described as a tradable fund that tracks an asset and enables access through regulated exchanges in a single product.
Near-term targets and the institutional demand thesis
In the nearer term, Bitwise sets a $200,000 Bitcoin target by the end of 2025, linking the expectation to continued ETF inflows and demand channels it views as more predictable than prior retail-driven cycles. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan characterizes the move as “sustained, institutional-driven growth,” signaling a change in how capital enters the market and how demand is expressed.
Bitwise also anchors its long-run thesis in Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply and maps a structured range of decade-long outcomes. The firm cites a base case of $1.3 million by 2035, alongside a bull case near $3 million and a bear case around $88,000, framing a wide but organized scenario set. The base case is paired with an implied long-term compound annual growth rate of roughly 28%, reinforcing the scale of upside Bitwise associates with scarcity plus institutional allocation.
Why Bitwise expects less extreme cycles over time
Bitwise argues that the four-year halving cycle will matter less in proportional terms as Bitcoin’s market capitalization grows. In this context, the Law of Diminishing Marginal Returns means each incremental supply reduction has a smaller percentage impact on price as the asset’s base value expands. That logic supports Bitwise’s “10-year grind upward” framing. The thesis is that absolute returns can remain robust even if the parabolic year-over-year percentage spikes of earlier cycles become less common.
Bitwise presents Bitcoin’s next decade as an era defined by institutional market plumbing and supply-constrained appreciation rather than episodic speculative surges. Regulatory clarity and ETF channels are positioned as mechanisms that can reduce short-term volatility and normalize returns without removing the long-term upside implied by scarcity.
