VanEck argues that miner capitulation—signaled by a 4% decline in Bitcoin’s hashrate by December 15, 2025—can function as a contrarian indicator that often appears near market resets. The firm’s Mid-December 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck ties the hashrate contraction to miner stress while emphasizing that institutional accumulation may cushion downside pressure.
What the hashrate drop is signaling
VanEck defines miner capitulation as the moment weaker or overlevered operators are forced to shut down rigs, reducing hashrate and effectively “purging” marginal participants. Hashrate, as the report frames it, is the aggregate computing power securing the network, and a material decline implies miners are exiting or pausing operations. The 4% monthly contraction is described as the largest since April 2024, and VanEck places it in a historical dataset extending back to 2014.
VanEck’s dataset suggests hashrate declines have historically preceded positive forward returns more often than not. The report states that 30-day hashrate declines were followed by positive 90-day returns in 65% of cases, versus 54% after hashrate expansion. Over a longer window, the note says negative 90-day hashrate growth preceded positive 180-day returns 77% of the time, with average gains near 72%. VanEck adds a timing nuance: hashrate weakness often lags price weakness, which has historically aligned the signal closer to lows than peaks.
The report links today’s compression to tighter miner margins, highlighting how profitability can deteriorate for older or higher-cost operators. VanEck estimates the breakeven electricity cost for a 2022-era Bitmain S19 XP fell from about $0.12/kWh in December 2024 to roughly $0.077/kWh by mid-December 2025. It also notes that difficulty adjustments—designed to keep block production steady—can follow hashrate declines and may ease forced selling pressure by improving miner economics.
VanEck also points to demand-side support, noting that Digital Asset Treasuries bought 42,000 BTC between mid-November and mid-December 2025. In operational terms, the report frames this as absorption capacity that can offset miner-driven supply. For traders and risk teams, the setup is presented as a two-sided profile: near-term volatility risk alongside a potential upside catalyst if supply tightness meets sustained institutional demand.
VanEck explicitly cautions that the analysis is based on historical patterns and that outcomes and timing can vary materially. The firm’s core takeaway is that capitulation can be “cleansing” and, when paired with steady demand, has historically preceded stronger multi-month performance. The practical monitoring set implied by the note is straightforward: track hashrate and difficulty trends in parallel with institutional flow signals to assess whether the cycle reset is completing.
